This year’s Early Bird Survey of planting intentions indicates a continuation in the rise of winter cropping for harvest 2023. These are unsurprising results, given the relatively favourable planting conditions for many growers this autumn.
The AHDB Early Bird Survey is carried out each autumn to assess national cropping intentions. It is undertaken by The Andersons Centre, with the help of the Association of Independent Crop Consultants (AICC) and other agronomists. With UK area information yet to be published for 2022, the 2022 area data used in this release is the Defra June Survey England area, combined with the areas for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland from the AHDB Planting and Variety survey. More information on this can be found here.
This year’s survey covered 502Kha and represents the intentions of farmers across the UK during a snapshot in time. Data was still being collected for these provisional results up until 8 November 2022.
The intended wheat area for harvest 2023 is forecast to be relatively unchanged (-0.1%) on the year, at 1,803Kha. Despite coming down from the record highs seen in the spring, UK feed wheat prices have remained historically high, driven by the war in Ukraine and the tight global supply picture
In 2023, the total barley area is estimated to be down by 1.7% on the year at 1.089Mha, with a drop in intended spring barley plantings outweighing a rise in winter barley planting intentions
The winter barley area is estimated to be 4.1% higher year-on-year, at 454Kha. This is marginally higher than the area planted in 2019 (453Kha), and if realised, it would be the largest winter barley area since 2003 (455Kha)
The spring barley area is forecast down 5.4% on the year at 635Kha. If realised, this would be the smallest area since 2012 (618Kha)
The estimated 2023 oat area sits at 162Kha, down 9.5% from 2022’s estimate (179Kha).
Oilseed rape planting intentions for 2023 are pegged at 415Kha, up by 13.4% on 2022’s estimate. This is a fairly significant increase on the year, and if realised, would be the second consecutive year of area growth
Olivia Bonser, Market Intelligence Analyst, AHDB, said: “The provisional results of this year’s Early Bird Survey are unsurprising. Historically high global grain prices supported by the war in Ukraine, combined with favourable autumn weather and a larger drilling window, has impacted planting decisions for 2023.
“However, higher fertiliser cost and the impact on the 2023 crop quality and/or quantity should growers apply less fertiliser to mitigate some of this cost, will be something to monitor going forward.”
You can read the full summary at: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/favourable-autumn-conditions-see-rise-in-winter-cropping-for-harvest-2023-grain-market-daily
